Your calls and the elections: A love story

Will SPY break through this resistance and take you to tendy-town? Fucking probably. For a little while at least.

SPY Yearly performance

No promises or anything (and remember, this isn't financial advice), but if you think about things that would influence a pop in the SP500 (of which there are a good amount), and the odds of those things happening (which are pretty good), it seems likely that bulls are going to have their way.

Most investors right now are focused on the stimulus bill and forgetting about the tailwinds of the election: Whoever gets elected will probably pass a stimulus package so that's basically a foregone conclusion. We're probably going to get one, it's probably happening shortly after the elections. That means your calls will print.

Alongside that, we have more and more news coming in that signals that at least some folks will start getting vaccinated for COVID. Even if not everyone gets one, even if it's not very effective, the conspicuous care will make the markets surge. Folks hear "vaccines are out" and basically assume that it's a binary situation and that COVID is over. That will be a needle-moving event (pun definitely intended).

Overall, the most important race you should be watching is the senate: This is what's really going to tip the scales. Most people are expecting a Biden win, but if Democrats control the house, senate and presidency, we're going to see a jump in corporate taxes alongside that stimulus package.

FiveThirtyEight has some interesting things to say about that outcome that I'll leave you to explore, but at least leading up to the elections we're probably in for a bull run.

VALUE MACHINE